The Alex Caruso-for-Josh Giddey trade was not the home run that Chicago Bulls fans wanted it to be.
Caruso was Arturas Karnisovas‘ one remaining asset that could have helped set the team up for the future with a surplus of draft capital. His value was high. As I reported last week, the Bulls had opportunities to acquire multiple protected first-round picks prior to last season’s trade deadline. According to Yahoo’s Jake Fischer, the Bulls were asking for up to four first-round picks.
Yet they ultimately settled for a single player.
It was a missed opportunity not to have struck while the iron was hottest. At the same time, Caruso’s value has declined since as he is now a year older with only one playoff run left on his bargain deal.
This decision to specifically target Giddey rather than draft capital seems to have played a role in the Bulls not getting as much as expected. Seeking out a specific player instead of selling to the highest bidder drove down Karnisovas’ negotiating power and ultimately left him without the ability to add picks or offload bad salary.
On top of that, Giddey has legitimate flaws. After getting benched in the playoffs, there are real concerns about his ability to impact the game at the highest level.
The outcome of this trade is now heavily dependent on how Giddey performs and the price of his next contract. Acquiring additional assets would have spread out that pressure and helped the Bulls fill out their future roster with cost controlled contributors.
While understanding the missed opportunities and shortcomings of the deal, I don’t think this is as bad as the Internet is making it out to be. And it could have been worse. They made the right call to do the deal now rather than waiting and trying to stay competitive. Stringing out the decision may have driven Caruso’s price down further, and picking a young building block signals the Bulls are thinking the right things.
Maybe this is putting too much faith in a front office that frankly hasn’t deserved it, but after this trade, the Bulls have pathways to brighten their future…If they follow the right steps.
1. Sign Josh Giddey to his next deal
Entering the final year of his rookie contract, the Bulls are now on the clock in signing Giddey to his next deal. Lead Oklahoma City Thunder decision-maker Sam Presti wrote in his press release that Giddey didn’t want to come off the bench, indicating he views himself as a starting guard. And after parting with their most precious asset to get him, Giddey’s representation understands how much the Bulls value him. And they will be ready to collect.
It might be wise to try to get a deal done before the season while Giddey’s value is relatively low. He may prefer to wait until he’s had a chance to put up some big box score numbers in a larger role next season, but maybe he wants to secure a long-term deal.
According to Stephen Noh’s salary projection model, Giddey is worth about $18.7 million. I’d guess Giddey’s camp is seeking closer to $25 million, so it would be smart to lock him into the $20 million range for the next four or five years.
Part of the discourse surrounding the trade is the fact that Giddey is in the final year of his contract. If the Bulls can get something favorable done quickly, it will help ease that concern and put the team in a position to make a value deal on one of their new building blocks.
2. Keep the 2025 pick
Since the Bulls weren’t able to stack their coffers with picks, the single most important thing the Bulls need to do in the wake of this trade is prevent the top-10 protected pick owed to the San Antonio Spurs from conveying.
They can’t head into a rebuilding year without their own draft pick.
It’s not going to be hard to get worse after losing Caruso. The defensive anchor took on the nightly assignment of guarding the opposing team’s best player, from Stephen Curry to Giannis Antetokounmpo. He hit a game-winning shot, sent one game to overtime and had countless game-saving stops on the defensive end. He coached from the sidelines and made up for the errors and mistakes of those around him. With Caruso on the court, the Bulls defended at a top-12 rate. With him off the court, they plummeted to a 120.6 defensive rating, worse than the league’s 30th-ranked team.
Caruso’s loss will hurt on the offensive end too. They trade in a 40.8 percent three-point shooter on good volume for a 33 percent three-point shooter on low-volume.
The Bulls may be bad enough after losing Caruso to be able to keep their top-10 protected pick. But there must be some intention behind it too. The Bulls can’t make any win-now moves to push for the middle.
If the Bulls change their ways of constantly pushing for mediocrity, they can add a player from a loaded draft class to a young core of Coby White, Ayo Dosunmu, Patrick Williams, Josh Giddey and the 11th pick in the 2024 Draft.
That core is promising, but it’s still missing a true number one. At age 35, it’s difficult to envision DeMar DeRozan being that guy for much longer. Keeping the 2025 pick becomes the most important element of their short-term planning and best avenue to find a franchise cornerstone.
3. Move on from DeMar DeRozan
The Giddey trade signals that the team may finally have realized that it will have to take a step back this upcoming season.
Moving on from DeRozan makes that even easier.
It also shifts the DeRozan marketplace. If the Bulls aren’t there to overpay to keep their guy, they’re in prime position to facilitate sign-and-trades.
Other than the Philadelphia 76ers if they miss out on their primary options, none of the cap space teams (Charlotte Hornets, Detroit Pistons, Utah Jazz, Orlando Magic, Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs) make a ton of sense as DeRozan landing spots. That means DeRozan may have to settle for the mid-level exception if he gets to free agency.
A two-year, $61.5 million extension could be the best offer available. And one that makes him immediately tradeable.
Let’s say the Philadelphia 76ers make a play for Jimmy Butler. The Bulls could extend-and-trade DeRozan to Miami as the Heat’s short-term Butler replacement. Miami would pick up two or three first-round picks from Philadelphia and get under the luxury tax. As compensation, maybe the Bulls acquire a few second rounders (Philadelphia has number 41), and could try to dump Jevon Carter’s $6.5 million in the process. Not the sexiest return, but it would be a prudent cap-preserving move.
A similar move could be made with the Los Angeles Clippers if the 76ers are able to pry Paul George.
If the Bulls regain leverage by being willing to let DeRozan walk, they won’t be forced into a bad Zach LaVine trade just to get rid of him to stay under the tax and compete. Now that they are in a rebuilding year, it is imperative that they avoid attaching assets to dump LaVine’s contract.
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