Mailbag: Could Toronto land Shai Gilgeous as a free agent in 2027?

In this week’s mailbag Doug Smith answers questions about Gilgeous-Alexander joining the Raptors some day, this season’s NBA MVP ballot and much more.

This mailbag runs the gamut, which is just the way we like it.

And, of course, a Chris Boucher question.

Hi Doug — Summer is coming up and while you have a lot of hoops on your summer 2024 agenda, it may be a good time to look back and reflect a little bit.

We relate to sports in the summer as a part of relaxed diversion. With baseball we welcome “The Boys of Summer” with its echo of our own youthful play.

And now we must live in summer with eco-anxiety as fires and heat domes remind us that our planet is warming too fast and that needed climate action is too slow.

Who would sit in the sun in the 500 level of Rogers Centre to watch the Blue Jays during a heat dome?

How would we respond if the Blue Jays informed us about the carbon emissions associated with air conditioning at the Rogers Centre if the roof is closed during a heat dome?

Increasingly, citizens might care, but with sport we have a tendency to “preserve our diversion” and not pay attention. Until the next time.

So there it is: we are entertained and diverted by sport; and we cannot escape troubling realities in our country and world. Both.

How are you thinking and feeling about this double aspect of sport in our time? Is there something to be said for incorporating both aspects of sport into our lives and communities? Who or what is best at doing that?

-Charles N.

That is really hard to rationalize in this day and age and that’s without even thinking about the millions of miles sports franchise worldwide fly on charter planes every single day of the year.

I guess the only thing is that we have to hope leagues are mitigating what damage their teams do to the environment and that the good they do in some ways — employment, secondary economic good they provide, the social good they do to foster some sense of “community” among fans — is somewhat worth it.

It’s not good enough, of course, but there’s not a fail-safe answer.

Hey Doug,

This might be a stupid question, but one I’ve been thinking about for a few years now.

Obviously there are a lot of retired basketball players and pundits out there that say the game is too “soft” now. That back in the ’80s and ’90s superstars would play the entire season, there weren’t things like “load management,” and players like Michael Jordan and Charles Barkley, etc. would simply play through injuries. Certainly, when I was watching the game as a kid during the ’90s I don’t remember players like Barkley, Jordan, Patrick Ewing, Hakeem Olajuwon, etc., ever sitting for multiple games at a time (maybe it’s because information wasn’t readily available like it is now so it was simply more difficult to pay attention). I’m not really one to think the game is too “soft” now, I just think it’s different and a lot of injuries can be from legit physical play … but also a lot seem to be from not a whole lot of contact.

So here’s my question: A lot of injuries now seem to be lower-body injuries. I’m not a statistics guy, but it seems like the vast majority of injuries that keep players out for extended periods are leg/foot injuries. Obviously, footwear technology has come a long way. Remember in the “The Last Dance” Jordan said he wore the first edition of his Air Jordans in a game at Madison Square Garden and his feet were basically falling off? And remember when Zion Williamson’s shoe exploded in college?

My question is this: do you think shoe technology design might be at least partially responsible for so many injuries? Not so much a conspiracy theory, but maybe designers are getting it wrong and the shoes players wear are having a negative impact on their bodies? Would the NBA ever consider looking into such a thing so that the superstar players could stay in more televised games? Seems like such an investigation would only serve to benefit teams and revenue streams … and I’m assuming shoe companies could still make shoes that are both fashionable and ergonomically functional.

Sorry for such a long-winded and maybe stupid question … but one I think about a lot.

-Mike Pszczonak

Teams, leagues and agents/agencies have so much financially at stake and invested in the sport that they will examine every conceivable thing to see if it has any adverse impact on player health and that includes footwear.

So I am sure studies are being done and experimentation is constantly going on. Whether it went too far and needs to be dialed back a bit could very well be a thing but somebody, somewhere is examining it.

Personally, I think the body is being put to at too far lengths too often and physiologically we’ve reached the limit. Games are too hard and too frequent.

Hi Doug,

I’ve read several of your colourful descriptions of your disdain for NCAA basketball, but to borrow a phrase from Marvel, I seem to have missed the “origin story” of that contempt. What is it about the NCAA brand of basketball that has you reaching for the eye-gouging tools?

-Ian from Toronto

In no real order:

The game is bad; bad shooting, bad fundamentals, just not good.

The shot clock is too long; every possession seems like a never-ending three-man weave drill ending in a bad shot.

The officiating in gawdawful bad.

I hate “The Cult Of Coach.”

Two halves instead of four quarters tends to leave every half or game evolving into a (bad) free throw shooting contest.

The best players never stay in school to create any sense of constant with a team to follow year to year.

I’m sure there’s more but I’m getting into a cranky mood thinking about it.

Greetings Doug,

I’m wondering if you could shed some light into why there are seemingly so many basketball players who go from very productive all-stars or starters to end of bench or out of the league very quickly; seemingly more so than other major sports like hockey, baseball, etc. where the drop in production is more gradual.

Sometimes that “drop” in production happens over a year or two or at ages (e.g. around 30) that defy conventional wisdom. I can understand injuries can play a role in diminished production but is basketball such that it’s just harder to bounce back from more injuries?

-Joe in Markham

I’m not sure I agree with the premise but I will say this:

There are only 450ish NBA jobs available to players from around the world and that creates more intense competition over employment than exists in any sport. Toss in the evolution of skills — bigger, faster, stronger, younger — and it’s not a surprise the turnover is high.

Soccer has larger rosters and more high-level leagues, baseball has many more jobs, hockey has lots of opportunities for what’s a regional niche game.

Doug, I enjoyed your analyses of the potential Olympic teams. Got me thinking, how would the men’s team do as an NBA team? I know there is the “bigs” issue, but beyond that I think they would match up well with anyone.

-Bruce in Oshawa

Canada’s team? Yeah, size would be an issue as would be shooting but I am sure that a team with Shai Gllgeous-Alexander, Jamal Murray, RJ Barrett, Dillon Brooks, Lu Dort, Andrew Nembhard, Shaedon Sharpe, Bennedict Mathurin and Kelly Olynyk would host an NBA Eastern Conference first-round series at the absolute least.

Often when a player is denied at the basket he appeals to the referee, incredulous at a foul not being called, therefore compromising his ability to get back on defence.

Question 1 … does this “working the official” result in favourable calls later?

Question 2 … why can’t coaches address this … seems like simple thing to stop doing.

Thanks,

-Curtis S.

It doesn’t work often enough (on the next play, for instance) and coaches do mention it if it’s a chronic problem but often it’s an immediate, emotional outburst and they can’t stop in the second when it happens.

Hi Doug,

Who knew a 20-point loss could be that entertaining?

The Thunder game reminded me of the Nuggets game; we had no business being close, but for a while victory looked possible.

Oh well …

Some questions:

1) Last week you mentioned DeRozan’s career and he will soon pass some NBA legends in scoring. Do you think Hall of Fame is possible and if not, how much did playing in a small market (as Americans think of us) hurt his chances?

2) Lately it seems that the Raptors may have missed an opportunity in not trading Bruce Brown soon after we acquired him. Do you think he’ll be here in the fall?

3) As tough as it’s been, the last games of the season have shown us who’s worthy of a spot and who’s not. Two questions: what type of players do the Raptors need and what’s the best way to obtain them? (Draft, free agents, trade?)

4) I read that the G-League Ignite will cease to exist next year. Your thoughts on why and do you agree with the decision?

Thanks for the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander article, it’s nice to see our Olympic players shine in the NBA!

-Bernie M.

All anyone should want from a Raptors team missing four and sometimes five starters is an honest effort and an entertaining, contested game.

I said last week that I think DeRozan has worked into the Hall of Fame conversation and I don’t think the markets he plays or played in are even a small part of the consideration.

How any can say they missed an opportunity to make any trade absent of knowing precisely what was offered seems odd to me. But, whatever. There’s a team option on his contract, which put him in the unique position of being on an expiring contract now and on an expiring contract next season too. I can see the Raptors picking up the contract and finding a bigger deal to put him into.

They need size, at every position, and they could use frontcourt shooting and I think trades and mid-level free agents is where they should work.

The Ignite is losing money, it’s going to start losing players to NIL NCAA individual deals and the Ignite was a nice idea that just didn’t pan out.

If the biggest names in the NBA were doing what Jalen Brunson is doing with the Knicks, wouldn’t his name already be carved on the MVP trophy? OG Anunoby has missed numerous games, Julius Randle too and he keeps carrying the team on his back, 14 games over .500 with a winning record home and road. Any thoughts?

-Paul M.

Think we might want to pump the brakes a bit. Brunson is really good and having a very good season and, yeah, Randle missed some time and so did Mitchell Robinson and Anunoby hardly hit his stride in New York before he had surgery.

But the Knicks are, what, fifth in the mediocre East? That’s not setting the league on fire.

Like I said, Brunson’s good but I cannot see a way he supplants anyone on my ballot as it is today: Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic in a dead tie at Nos. 1-2 with some order of Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jayson Tatum, Anthony Edwards and Kawhi Leonard in three of the final spots.

Hi Doug,

I have a couple of questions:

How concerned are you that a deep playoff run for the Thunder or Nuggets could hinder Canada’s chances of getting out of our Olympics group?

Where does Shai Gilgeous-Alexander rank for you in the MVP race?

Cheers,

-Dylan H.

I don’t think “concerned” is the word; I believe that if both teams go deep — and I’m talking NBA Finals deep — there’s more a chance of health and wear hurting Jamal Murray than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Luckily, if I get a ballot it doesn’t have to be submitted until the last day of the regular season but right now I have Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic in a dead heat with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Edwards, Jayson Tatum and Kawhi Leonard in a four-man race for the last three spots.

But that can all change before April 12.

Hi Doug,

It’s well understood that Masai Ujiri and Bobby Webster will spend the next few years building around Scottie Barnes. I think bringing in Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett is a good start. This trio is young, with a lot of upside, and they’re on the same timeline.

But what if Masai and Bobby aren’t really building around Scottie, but instead they’re secretly building around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

What I mean by this is that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander becomes a UFA in 2027. By then, the trio of Barnes, Barrett and Quickley will be 26, 27 and 28 respectively, and Shai will be 29. BBQ will have three years to jell as a franchise foundation, and more importantly, all three will be at or close to their primes as individual players by the time Shai becomes a UFA.

If in 2027 you add Shai, you will now have a championship team for the next five or six years! And two of your starters will be from the GTA.

The Raptors have always had trouble signing top American free agents, but now the NBA has top Canadian talent that will want to play in Toronto and, more importantly, win championships in their native city.

What are your thoughts on this?

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