Here is the updated Cleveland Browns’ Age Guardrails Draft Board for the 2024 NFL Draft. This allows you to see who the most likely draft picks are for Andrew Berry based on what he has done in the past.
Since the combine has passed and we now have athletic testing data, it is time to reset the Cleveland Browns board for the upcoming NFL draft. So, while we might not know exactly who Andrew Berry might select, he has given us plenty of information over the last four years to know some likely targets.
So far we have collected many players’ ages and will keep checking for more each month. Some of the websites I have to rely on aren’t always the most credible, like Wikipedia, so if you see a player’s age missing and can find it or one that is wrong, please send them to me with the source, and I will update it for the next version of the board.
What Are The Guardrails?
The guardrails examine how Andrew Berry has operated in the past and then project this forward. While he could draft an older player or someone less athletic than they have ever done before, it is a solid starting point for what he seems to prefer. That is why my work ranges from ideal to unlikely. It isn’t explicitly ruling it out. We have older prospects this year than previous years, people ask why don’t I edit things before. When the guardrails are saying Andrew Berry has never done x before, it is counter intuitive to edit this before he actually does something.
One thing to remember: the guardrails don’t apply to quarterbacks and special teams players as they play so much longer in terms of age.
Do The Age Guardrails Work?
I have studied the efficiency of the age guardrails, and you can view them here: 2020, 2021, 2022, do other teams use them?
It is important to remember that the draft is a massive lottery and then relies on the coaching staff to develop the players the General Manager picks. Also, the majority of day three picks will amount to nothing. This is very normal across the league. I am working on a study on how Andrew Berry has drafted versus other General Managers.
So, below, we have the four different draft classes. Who Andrew Berry actually drafted for the Cleveland Browns? What if they went for older ‘more proven’ prospects for instant return? Just using luck and going for the next name in the draft. Then finally, another look using luck of just taking the next player at the same position.
2020
2021
2022
With three years of evidence, I think if you are viewing the age guardrails as something negative then you aren’t looking at the facts and results that are in front of you. I have taken two key takeaways from this study:
1 – We overvalue picks outside the first two rounds far too much and expect a hit rate that isn’t reasonable because we have several times where Browns players have flamed out. Still, then we look at the other options around them and find out they actually performed a little better than some of the guys at the same spot.
2 – If you think drafting old will give you a better year-one return, you are sadly mistaken. I wanted to provide four options here so that we had some options to see what was best. It is clear, looking back, that out of the four, the older prospects are by far the worst and even picking the next player or same position has far better returns than the old guys.
I expect the age guardrails to remain. We might see more players in the ‘okay’ range rather than ‘ideal’ but the idea that the Browns should add 24-year-olds for instant impact is a horrendous move based on what we know about older prospects.
THE GUARDRAILS
The guardrails have been updated from what they were in 2023, and you can read this piece here.
Age Week 1
Rounds 1-2
Ideal – 22.0 or less
Unlikely – 23.1 or more
Rounds 3-6
Ideal – 22.5 or less
Unlikely – 23.6 or more
Round 7
Ideal – 23.0 or less
Unlikely – 24.1 or more
RAS
Rounds 1-2
Ideal – 8.00 or more
Unlikely – 5.99 or less
Rounds 3-7
Ideal – 6.00 or more
Unlikely – 0.99 or less
Here are all of Andrew Berry’s past picks based on these updated guardrails:
THE DRAFT BOARD
The draft board is broken down by round. The number after each name is their age week one of the 2024 season, green is saying they fit in terms of age, yellow is the okay range and red is an age they have never taken with that pick.
Those without an age I could not find, if you see them anywhere, please send their date of birth to me with the source of the data, too, so I can update it for next time.
The draft board I have used for this is Mock Draft Databases’ Consensus Big Board, so if you are unhappy your favorite player is in a particular place on the board, please send all complaints to them and not the comment section or my Twitter account. As we go along, their board will get more accurate as more experts submit a big boards.
People have asked if I will change the board with an older age draft class but since the board is based on what Andrew Berry has done in the past it would be wrong to change this before the draft. I had 75 red players last year and the current chart has 84. So it isn’t a dramatic rise. But there are still quite a few ages I don’t have so even if that jumps to 100 it isn’t that much.
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