In other circumstances Thomas Frank would be under pressure to deliver results but he retains the support of the club’s ownership.
There will be an injury review at Brentford this summer. An open, honest discussion with everyone responsible for keeping the club’s players fit and available for selection – the performance staff, the coaches, the medical team who have been trying to fix more injuries than the club has possibly ever seen in a single season.
They will analyse why they have suffered so many and what can be done about it.
Granted, there has been plenty of bad luck. A nudge on Rico Henry in a game against Newcastle United did his knee in. Ethan Pinnock was scissored by Mario Lemina in the 96th minute of a game against Wolverhampton Wanderers in which they were 2-0 up. An opponent landed on Ben Mee when they played West Ham causing a fractured ankle. Another one landed on Bryan Mbeumo when they played Brighton and he was out for four months.
But Brentford have not got to where they are today by resting back, waiting for their luck to change and expecting things to get better by themselves. So the situation will be thoroughly analysed with any changes implemented by day one of preseason.
Clubs can do little about those “contact injuries“, as they are known: the tackles and tussles during games and training that will at times lead to time out.
But by the end of February, according to data compiled by Premier Injuries, Brentford have had the second most days lost to injury this season – a whopping 1,159 – beaten only by Newcastle, with 1,333. It’s perhaps unsurprising that both teams have performed well below last season’s levels.
Yet whereas Newcastle have slipped from Champions League qualification to mid-table, at Brentford, who finished ninth and missed out on qualifying for Europe by only two points, the impact has seen them slide alarmingly towards the relegation places.
One of the best-run clubs of the past five years has won only three times since November, twice in 2024, has accumulated only four Premier League points from a possible last 27. In the table it leaves them only above two teams deducted points for financial regulation breaches and the three who were promoted from the Championship last season.
They are not favourites to go down but the prospect is on supporters’ minds. The r/Brentford Reddit message boards are full of debates about where it has gone wrong, who has the easiest run-in, and which players would stay or leave if they were to go down.
Of course, injuries are not the only problem – far from it – but speaking to well-placed sources this week they point to an increasingly tough environment and the entire defensive unit of last season missing for most of this one.
Goalkeeper David Raya left for Arsenal and the back four of Henry, Aaron Hickey, Mee and Pinnock have not played together since September. Henry was injured in the fifth game of the season, Hickey in the 10th. Mee has been out since February. By the time Pinnock returns he will have missed around 10 games.
Then try adding that to the mountainous challenges a club of Brentford’s size and means already faces. They have the fourth smallest wage bill in the Premier League – by some estimates a shade under £40m per year. It is five times smaller than the two Manchester clubs.
They own the third smallest ground in the Premier League, and in a landscape of tightening financial fair play rules the smaller gate receipts make it even harder to keep up. And unlike relegation rivals, they have operated within those spending limitations.
In short, Brentford have been punching above their weight for several years now, but there are only so many rounds you can keep being punched by heavyweights and not expect to go down.
Or as one source put it last week: “We’re fighting with a smaller deck of cards, and pretty much all our aces have been taken away from us.”
Aside from the defence and a goalkeeper now playing for a team challenging for the title, for most of the season Brentford’s pack has been missing its ace of diamonds.
Ivan Toney was unavailable for 20 league games while he served a betting ban this season. How many teams could remove their best player, one who scored 21 times in 35 appearances last season, for that many games and not feel the strain? It would affect teams at any level, regardless of their budget, but is more sharply felt by those at the lower end.
Still, he is one trump card they will have to get used to playing without. In a few months Toney will have one year left on his contract and it is expected that Brentford will receive an offer in the summer transfer window that they are happy to accept.
Every club in the Big Six, bar Manchester City, are keeping tabs on his situation. But how much Brentford will receive for him will depend on several factors.
He is a proven Premier League striker, 28 years old, his value only increasing by career landmarks such as scoring on his first England start against the fourth best team in the Fifa world rankings.
Recruitment specialists believe much will depend on how the market for strikers unfolds, pointing to the craziness of last year’s central midfielders.
Chelsea paid £106m for Enzo Fernandez in January, so in the summer West Ham demanded £105m from Arsenal for Declan Rice and Brighton held out for £115m from Chelsea for Moises Caicedo.
It is thought Victor Osimhen’s impending transfer could be pivotal to Toney’s value. Osimhen, who Chelsea and Arsenal are monitoring, is said to have a release clause of £113m. For how much and where the Napoli striker ends up could set a price level that other striker deals will be based on.
Plus multiple interested parties adds to the unpredictable alchemy of a transfer fee. Plus these days there are fewer players like Toney, your more traditional No 9 who can hold the ball up, bring others into the game, a chess piece that would sit comfortably in a team that likes wingers and midfielders running beyond the centre-forward, whose record from penalties is exceptional.
Toney’s last contribution to the club could well be scoring the crucial goals to keep them up. It would be a fitting one.
And then it will be a summer of change. The injury review, Toney’s departure, how the money is spent repairing a battered and bruised football club. All of which manager Thomas Frank is expected to be a part of.
In other circumstances Frank would be under pressure, but the club remain supportive of a manager who has been operating in such challenging conditions. They will need him in the tough times ahead.
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