One of the things that routinely comes up is the idea of magical thinking.
Essentially, it is the expectation that everything is going to go according to plan and even some of the things you weren’t expecting will turn in your favor. It’s typically more of a fan affliction than general manager/coach affliction. They are paid to consider contingencies. That’s what we need to do here.
It almost calls for the reverse of magical thinking which I suppose we can call disaster thinking. What is the worst thing that could happen to this football team? That should be easy and obvious. If something were to happen to C.J. Stroud then this whole thing comes into question.
I suppose some of that is unavoidable. There is only one Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Lamar Jackson. There is only one C.J. Stroud. So, a drop off is unavoidable. What you want is to be a functional football team when your starting guy is out. Some teams have navigated their way through that and some teams haven’t.
The risk you run at this point is becoming another version of the New York Jets. They built a great defense and had some pieces around Aaron Rodgers, but when Rodgers went down they didn’t have enough to be a competitive football team. If you are building an offense for a quarterback that can throw it around the yard then having a backup capable of making most of those throws is paramount.
Everyone knows I’m the numbers guy, so let me throw two important numbers out at everyone. The first is easy math. In 2023, only nine quarterbacks started every game. That’s just a shade over a quarter of the league. In case anyone thinks that’s a fluke, it was ten the year before. The facts remain that the additional game is going to make it more difficult for any player to start all 17 games. Add to that the expectation of the playoffs and having quality depth at every spot is just that much more important.
I really like Case Keenum. I don’t hate Davis Mills. However, these numbers reveal something that’s impossible to ignore. If Stroud goes down (and the numbers above demonstrate that it is more likely than not) you are not in a great position to win a football game.
Now, it is fair to point out that there is more than one way to skin a cat. If you look at what the Texans have done so far in the offseason it would be impossible to ignore that they are beefing up their defense. There are still holes, positions where they are hoping someone steps up, and contingencies that need to be accounted for there, but they are likely a better team on defense right now than they were a year ago.
The only major addition on offense is a running back and it is a running back that has a better chance of being a 20 carry guy than Devin Singletary. So, you could see a scenario where they simply ask their defense to make more plays, keep the score low, and hope their running game can lead them to victory. Still, I don’t think anyone feels that this is the team’s best or most likely path to victory.
That leaves an upgrade in the backup quarterback himself. Keenum’s contract is easy to get out of. Mills is on his rookie deal and likely is a year to year proposition anyway. You brought in Keenum to be a veteran presence that could help steward Stroud through what was likely to be a difficult rookie season. He did that and did it admirably. He knows how the league works and he has to know that the situation is now different. This team cares about winning football games and need someone that puts them in the best position to do that when Stroud can’t play.
The first wave of free agency is over. There are few names left on the market that would even remotely be candidates for this assignment. In fact, there is probably only one that any football fan would be somewhat comfortable with: Ryan Tannehill. The list of names after Tannehill dovetails into a group of guys that might have been good five years ago or likely never were good in the first place. They include the likes of Brian Hoyer, Carson Wentz, Trevor Siemian, Blaine Gabbert, and Nate Sudfeld.
Tannehill: 64.8%, 1,616 yards, 7.0 YPA, 4 TD, 7 INT 78.5 Rating
These numbers don’t make me feel all tingly down inside, but they do come with a context. The Titans offensive line was a dumpster fire last season. In four previous seasons, Tannehill threw 89 touchdowns and threw 33 interceptions. The Titans didn’t get to the top of the mountain with Tannehill, but they did advance to an AFC championship game. He is a guy that can make most of the throws and has enough athleticism to be a weapon with his legs when he needs to.
The backup quarterback is a unique thing on a football team. Backup linemen, defensive backs, and skill position players will get on the field. They will play on special teams and play occasionally to give the starters a breather. It is a lot easier to justify the expense in your mind. Even if a guy gets only 100 to 200 snaps a season, those add up over the course of a career. They may come at a key moment in the season when the team needs someone to step up.
The backup quarterback is the ultimate insurance policy. The quarterback is the one position that when they are healthy they are never coming off of the field. So, spending any amount of money on a backup seems foolish when you view it through that lens. Why not spend the money on another linebacker or another defensive lineman that is more likely to see more action?
Those are unassailable arguments and if the Texans choose to go that route then all we can do is hope for the best. The difference now is that you have a guy that likely saw himself as a starter or someone that could compete for a starting job that no longer has that opportunity. His price can’t go anywhere but down. Maybe it hits a point you feel comfortable paying. Maybe in the wash of cutting Keenum it becomes easily affordable and you then have a backup physically and mentally capable of running the Bobby Slowik offense reasonably well. No one will do it as good as Stroud. We know this. We are just hoping for someone that can keep the boat above water if he has to miss time.
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