New York Knicks forward Julius Randle has spent the past few months trying to rehab from a shoulder injury to return in time for the 2024 NBA playoffs.
But on Thursday, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported that he will undergo season-ending surgery on his right shoulder.
Doctors warne Randle “that continued instability in the shoulder made it unsafe for him to play again this season,” Wojnarowski added. He’s expected to return around the beginning of the 2024-25 season in October.
Randle will finish this season having averaged 24.0 points on 47.2% shooting, 9.2 rebounds and 5.0 assists in 35.4 minutes per game across 46 appearances. He earned his second straight All-Star nod, and he might have been in line for another All-NBA team had he not fallen short of the new 65-game eligibility requirement. On paper, that makes him sound like a player whom the Knicks should build around moving forward.
However, Randle is heading into the final guaranteed year of his contract at $30.3 million. He has a $32.4 million player option for the 2025-26 season that he’s a virtual lock to decline, which would make him an unrestricted free agent. He’ll be eligible to sign a four-year, $190.2 million extension this summer, but he could be eligible for a five-year deal worth more than $300 million in free agency.
There’s no guarantee that the Knicks would offer him such a deal. Jalen Brunson is also heading into the final guaranteed year of his contract, and he is all but certain to decline his nearly $25 million player option for the 2025-26 season. Meanwhile, OG Anunoby figures to become an unrestricted free agent this summer by declining his $19.9 million player option for next season.
As of now, the Knicks’ books are largely clean after the 2024-25 season, but Anunoby, Randle and Brunson would cut into that on new deals. The Knicks can’t become major free-agent threats in 2025 unless at least two of those three leave. That means a major trade will be the most realistic way for them to improve their roster.
Unless they’re able to sign Randle to an extension this offseason, he stands out as the most obvious trade bait if the Knicks go star shopping. They aren’t going to move Brunson, and they won’t be able to trade Anunoby until at least Dec. 15 if they re-sign him this summer. Packaging Randle’s $30.3 million contract with Bojan Bogdanovic’s $19 million lightly guaranteed deal could get the Knicks up to nearly $50 million in outgoing salary, which would allow them to absorb even the biggest contracts across the league.
The playoffs will go a long way toward determining which stars hit the trade market this summer. The NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement will play a huge part as well. Teams that are above the second apron face a host of roster-building restrictions, so expensive rosters that suffer early-round knockouts might be less inclined to run their same group back next year.
The Minnesota Timberwolves stand out as one obvious candidate, particularly amidst their recent ownership drama. The Wolves project to be well over the second apron, as they owe more than $100 million next season to Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid alone. They’re currently a half-game behind the Denver Nuggets for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference and have stayed afloat since Towns suffered a meniscus injury in early March.
The Timberwolves were a disappointment last year while Towns missed nearly half the season with a calf injury, which raised questions about his future in Minnesota.
Stefan Bondy of the New York Daily News reported in October that the Knicks were “monitoring his situation,” while Shams Charania of The Athletic said in January that the Knicks are “always going to have interest” in Towns, even though a deal has yet to materialize. They reportedly have “no intention” of including Mitchell Robinson in a Towns deal, according to Matt Moore of The Action Network, which means they’d almost have to include Randle as the main salary-matching piece heading out.
The Los Angeles Clippers, Phoenix Suns and Golden State Warriors all face uncertain futures as well, particularly if they make early exits from the playoffs. Warriors governor Joe Lacob already told Tim Kawakami of The Athletic that he hopes to not only get below the second apron, but he wanted escape the luxury tax outright. The Clippers have to decide whether to re-sign Paul George and James Harden, while the Suns have to weigh the long-term outlook of their Big Three of Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal.
Los Angeles Lakers star LeBron James is always a wild card in free agency, and this year might be no different. He could pick up his $51.4 million player option and stay with the Lakers in 2024-25, or he could do so with the intention of forcing a trade, much like Harden did with the Philadelphia 76ers last offseason. James could also opt out and become a free agent, which would likely freeze the rest of the market until he decided upon his future.
If James, George and Harden all stay with their current teams, the free-agent class will be lacking in star power. There are plenty of solid starters and rotation players scattered throughout, but those that need high-end upgrades might be forced to explore the trade market instead.
The Knicks have Randle and Bogdanovic as their main salary-matching chips, but Miles McBride could have legitimate value as a trade sweetener after signing a three-year, $13 million extension in late December. The Knicks also have all of their own first-round picks through 2031, along with future first-rounders from the Dallas Mavericks, Detroit Pistons, Washington Wizards and Milwaukee Bucks. The Stepien Rule prohibits from giving away all of those picks in trades, but they can offer as many as nine first-rounders if so desired.
Worst-case scenario, the Knicks strike out on the trade market, run back this year’s core and hope for better injury luck next season. Best-case scenario, they turn Randle, Bogdanovic and some of their picks into a superstar teammate for Brunson and Anunoby. Which path they follow might determine both their short- and long-term ceiling.
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