The New York Giants have a major decision to make that could potentially shape the franchise’s future. Should they move up or down or stick and pick at six?
We can only imagine the countless scenarios the Giants’ brass have explored in their pre-draft meetings as they try to prepare for every possible scenario in the picks ahead of them. And while we’ll find out the answer in two weeks, let’s run down and determine the best scenario for the Giants ahead of what’s a critical season for general manager Joe Schoen, head coach Brian Daboll, and company.
Trading Up
Depending on the team’s draft board and how the beginning of this draft goes, we can see the Giants try to move up if the rumors are true that they’re that high on Drake Maye. The question is, what would it cost them to move up? If it’s a trade with the New England Patriots (who also need a quarterback), the reported asking price to move up to third overall could be as high as three first-round picks, including the Giants’ sixth pick in this year’s draft.
Personally, I wouldn’t feel comfortable investing that level of draft capital in a trade for Maye, even with him being the top-rated player on the Giants Country Big Board. That level of investment to move up three spots is too steep of a price for any prospect this year.
He’s our top-rated prospect, and we value him as a top-five player regardless of year. However, mortgaging the future with the current roster would only set Maye up for failure by draining long-term draft capital. Is it worth it to have your potential franchise quarterback, even if it means limiting the top draft talent you can bring in to support him?
The Giants sort of took a similar gamble with Eli Manning back in 2004 when they sent a small king’s ransom to the San Diego Chargers that included quarterback Phillip Rivers (the Giants’ first-round pick that year), and it worked out just fine for them in the end.
But these are different times, and I’m just not comfortable with the thought of draining valuable draft capital, given the roster’s current state.
Stick and Pick
Through the top five picks in the draft, we can expect to see between two and four quarterbacks and one or two wide receivers, with the potential for an offensive tackle or edge rusher to be thrown into the mix. In all of those scenarios, the Giants have options to take who they perceive to be the best player available who fits two requirements: plays a premium position and addresses a position of need.
The sample size for Joe Schoen as the main decision maker is small, but even dating back to his days with the Buffalo Bills, the team’s first draft pick was always a player at a premium position. As a reminder, a “premium position” is a quarterback, receiver, offensive tackle, pass-rusher, or cornerback.
The top ten applicable from our big board are (in order) include Maye, Caleb Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, Jared Verse, Terrion Arnold, Dallas Turner, Joe Alt, and Quinyon Mitchell. The only exclusion is Brock Bowers at tight end, although the argument could even be made that he’s dominant enough to justify an early selection.
Even if the top five picks all knock players off our board, that would, at worst, leave the Giants with four players in our top ten and at premium positions. (Our board also excludes players like Jayden Daniels, JJ McCarthy, and Rome Odunze, all of whom can end up as top ten picks, with Daniels and McCarthy possibly going top five.)
The “stick and pick” approach likely wouldn’t get the Giants the top player on their board, whoever that may be, but it would keep them in a position to add an elite prospect while keeping their draft capital.
Trading Down
The hardest part of trading down is that you need someone looking to trade up to your spot. That leaves the most important part about who picks directly behind the Giants, which someone could be looking to jump ahead of (the Titans, Falcons, and Bears as the next three picks).
Of those three teams, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see one or two edge rushers come off the board or one or two offensive tackles, as the teams have overlapping needs. That could mean that the Falcons could look to jump ahead of the Titans to secure a tackle or edge, both of which will likely be high on both teams’ boards. The Bears could look to jump the Falcons for an edge rusher, but I don’t think of the Titans as a trade-down option, as I’m expecting Joe Alt to go seventh overall.
If the Bears want to defeat the Falcons, they’ll likely need to defeat the Titans. It’s also possible that the Bears want to defeat the Titans to acquire Alt.
These would be minor moves that allow the Giants to secure a top 10-12 pick while adding draft capital. The Giants could theoretically take a small trade down early and then make a selection, or they could take a small trade down followed by another trade down and accumulate draft capital. That would result in the Giants having enough capital to make their traded-down first-round pick while also allowing them to move up from 47 to the late first or early second round.
The biggest issue I find with the trade down possibility is that the Falcons might be content taking whichever top tackle or edge rusher is available at eight overall, or whichever one the Titans don’t take. The Bears are a team with little draft capital this year, which might leave them not wanting to trade present picks, although they could likely be willing to trade 2025 picks.
All that said, trading down would get me a “yes” vote if possible. The most likely way to get to this point is if the Chargers decide to stay at five and take Alt, potentially forcing another team’s hand to jump the Titans.
I would like to say there is a very slim chance that the Vikings aren’t able to secure a trade to move up with the Patriots, Cardinals, or Chargers, which would leave the Giants as the next best option for the Vikings if they have a quarterback they like.
If the Vikings trade up to three or four, then the Chargers can still take an offensive tackle if the draft falls with Williams, Maye, Daniels, and Harrison Jr in the top four.
The Verdict
Trading down allows the Giants to secure draft capital to accumulate talent without reaching for a quarterback. It also feels like every year, at least lately, one of the top quarterbacks played up by the media and fans falls back down to Earth on draft night. If that should indeed happen, maybe that will allow the Giants to trade down and still have the option of taking a quarterback.
It’s also important to remember that the Giants won’t trade down if such a move knocks them out of range to take a player they want, so there’s minimal risk. Landing a player you think can improve your franchise while adding draft capital is always a good move.
The Giants are still in a situation where trading down might be the best move. However, a willing trade partner still needs to be found. Whether they find one—and whether Schoen thinks that’s the way to go—will be answered on draft weekend.
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