Analysis: The point where the Bears select, players most likely to be available there, and predraft preparation indcate possible trade back more and more every day.
The deeper the look at this draft class goes, the more likely a trade back at No. 9 by the Bears seems.
The key cogs within the talent evaluation and order of selection at No. 9 seem to be tight end Brock Bowers of Georgia and Notre Dame tackle Joe Alt.
Whether one or both of those slip into the first eight picks to one of the teams picking could be major factors in determining if the Bears can get one of the top three wide receivers or the top edge rusher at No. 9. A cornerback could even slip in there, further helping Bears chances.
Pro Football Focus this week released its complete draft evaluation of the top 300 pospects and counts both Alt (No. 5) and Bowers (No. 7) among the top 10 talents available. In fact, PFF even has Iowa cornerback Cooper DeJean at the No. 8 spot.
If teams selected according to a big board like this, the Bears could pretty much have their choice of the top edge rusher. With Atlanta in need of pass rush help, this seems unlikely as the Falcons will pick one spot ahead of the Bears and could take an edge, presumably Dallas Turner.
Washington wide receiver Rome Odunze is ranked sixth overall and the consensus Bears pick on mock drafts at NFLmockdraftdatabase.com. Yet, he’s hardly the strong favorite as he’s named the ninth pick to them on only 10% of mock drafts recorded. As the third-best receiver, the Bears might either beforced to take a second-best edge or move back instead.
In fact, the PFF analysis puts Texas defensive tackle Byron Murphy II as the ninth-best pick. Murphy plays a Bears need position at 3-technique, but would they actually consider him after he played a different type of scheme with the Longhorns?
Moving Back … That’s The Ticket
Of more importance here is what they could get by moving back in a trade.
If that board held up there would be numerous offensive linemen available to the Bears if they chose to fortify their protection for top pick Caleb Williams.
A mock draft released late this week by Chicago Tribune beat columnist Brad Biggs has the Bears moving back from No. 9 for extra picks and it makes total sense considering they have only four picks in the draft.
Biggs sees them going back only two spots and at No. 11, following a trade with Arizona, he has them picking Troy Fautanu of Washington. Although Fautanu played left tackle, he fits a profile at guard. Mockdraftable.com puts him among the most athletic left tackles with vertical and broad jumps in the top 10% of all combine tackle jumps (32 1/2 inches vertical, 9-foot-5 broad jump). He also ran 5.01 for the 40 at the Washington pro day.
There’s nothing to say the Bears had to play him at guard except he lacks ideal tackle height (6-3 3/4) and wingspan (81 1/2 inches), although he does have arms above average for tackles at 34 1/2 inches.
One of the pet lines for Bears offensive line coaches always has been they’ll put their “best five on the field,” and then determine positions. It isn’t quite that simple with center being a specialty type of position, but with a player like Fautanu this would be possible.
The way the Bears set up at guard and tackle, it could mean left tackle Braxton Jones moving if they drafted Fautanu. It could also mean changing their starting guards, possibly with a trade of Teven Jenkins.
Neither Jenkins nor guard Nate Davis enjoyed strong 2023 seasons but it’s possible Jenkins would still have great trade value after he was among the highest graded guards in the NFL each of the last two years when he was able to play. He missed
Jones was a top 35 tackle in both of his first two years according to PFF’s grading system. They would need to know they’re getting better at tackle to trade Jones. Whether his value would be as great is uncertain, but he has proven effective enough and was an all-rookie player two years ago. They could always cut or trade Nate Davis, too, but he’s not in his rookie contract and as such only a trade would let the Bears realize a cap savings — they’d be eating over $10 million in dead cap by cutting him before or after June 1.
Prepping to Take O-Line on a Trade Back
None of this says they have to draft an offensive lineman if they trade back. In fact, it would be difficult to imagine a trade back with Matt Eberflus coaching the team and no pass rusher involved then with the first pick.
They could move back and still obtain wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. from LSU, the fourth highest-rated receiver on most mock draftboards. Or they could have edge rusher 2-4, which would be Laiatu Latu from UCLA, Jared Verse from Florida State or Chop Robinson from Penn State.
Verse is regarded as more of an all-purpose defensive end than the others, while Latu’s technical skills and particularly his hand usage have been lauded. Robinson is known as the wild card, a raw, athletic talent who ran 4.48 in the 40 and needs to be coached up. The Bears feel they have the coaches who can do this in Travis Smith and also new defensive coordinator Eric Washington.
While he was a position coach in Carolina, the Panthers ranked in the top 10 in sacks in 5-of-7 seasons, including No. 1 in 2013 and a No. 2 in 2016.
Nevertheless, the Bears have held a large number of 30 visits or local visits with offensive linemen who might fall in the middle to late first round. Such a move makes total sense considering the high value of the quarterback they’d be protecting.
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