Playoff race update: Plenty of scenarios still in play for Bruins

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The Lightning are locked in to the first wild card spot and will play the division winner with the lesser record (currently the Bruins).

The real race is the second wild card spot. It’s the most interesting playoff race remaining with four teams still in the mix for one spot. The Penguins have the most regulation wins (31) of the four teams. The Flyers and Capitals have 30, followed by the Red Wings (27). The Penguins and Capitals could still catch the New York Islanders (90 points) for third place in the Metropolitan Division, but the Flyers cannot.

Here are the remaining schedules for each team:

• Capitals: vs. Bruins, at Flyers
• Red Wings: vs. Canadiens, at Canadiens
• Flyers: vs. Capitals
• Penguins: vs. Predators, at Islanders

Tuesday’s showdown between the Capitals and Flyers in Philadelphia will play a huge role in the outcome of this wild card race. The Capitals are the only team of the four that controls its own destiny. Two wins in any fashion for Washington will clinch at least the second wild card berth.

Most likely first-round opponents for Bruins

The most likely first-round opponent for the Bruins is still the Lightning. This scenario happens if the Bruins win the division and play the first wild card team in Round 1. The Bruins could still drop to second in the Atlantic and play the Leafs, which would be a much better matchup for Boston considering it has a seven-game win streak vs. Toronto.

For a Bruins-Leafs matchup to happen, the Panthers would need to finish ahead of the Bruins or tie them in points since they own the regulation wins tiebreaker. The scenarios where the Bruins drop to second are pretty unlikely, though, and would require losses (including at least one in regulation) over Boston’s final two games.

The Bruins could also win the Presidents’ Trophy and play either the Capitals, Flyers, Penguins, Red Wings or Islanders in the first round. All five of those teams represent a more favorable first-round matchup than the Lightning, although neither of those potential series would be a cakewalk for Boston.

The Bruins could also not win the Presidents’ Trophy and still finish first in the East. If the Rangers lose their final game in regulation and the Hurricanes take just one point (or zero) from their final game, the Bruins could leap frog both of them by winning their final two games. In that scenario the Bruins would have 113 points, while the Rangers have 112 and the Hurricanes have 112 or 111. The Stars, who have one more game, could also finish with 113 points and tie the Bruins. Dallas owns the Presidents’ Trophy tiebreaker over Boston with more regulation wins. So there’s an unlikely scenario where the Bruins finish first in the East, play the second wild card team, but don’t claim the Presidents’ Trophy (and the award’s curse!).

However, the chances of the Bruins finishing first in the conference and playing the second wild card team in any scenario are pretty low.

The Bruins probably will play the Lightning in Round 1, but it’s still not set in stone. It should make for a fun couple of days as the regular season winds down.