Newcastle need to make some changes to challenge for the Champions League again – and there are two transfers in particular that they need to consider.
It’s been a strange sort of season for Newcastle United – the elation of Champions League football returning to St. James’ Park has been tempered by a slightly disappointing seventh-place finish, but while results have fallen a little below expectations, the number of injuries they’ve endured means there are enough valid excuses to maintain the feeling continued progress.
But while there is still plenty of optimism floating around Tyneside as it stands, that will probably change if they fall well short of the top four again next year – and while they may have been unlucky with injuries in recent months, that shouldn’t mask the fact that some personnel changes will certainly be necessary. There have been issues with performance which weren’t caused by fitness concerns.
For starters, their defence struggled this season. One of the tighter back lines in 2022/23 was only able to operate at mid-table efficiency this time around – they conceded 62 goals at almost exactly that xG rate, more than double the numbers for goals and chances shipped that Arsenal put up. Granted that other teams managed to attack rather better than they defended and still did pretty well, with both Aston Villa and Tottenham Hotspur registering similar numbers, but defence is still a big differential between Newcastle and the top teams.
Part of the problem has been that they have conceded a lot of chances on counter-attacks and in transition, which is perhaps inevitable when you press so hard but also reflects teams figuring Howe’s methods out a little. It hasn’t helped that Nick Pope has been out for much of the season – they started conceding more as soon as Martin Dúbravka came in largely because the Slovakian isn’t especially comfortable outside his area and wasn’t as effective as Pope at nipping direct attacks in the bud.
But Pope is back and Aaron Ramsdale may be on the way in too, so that situation will be sorted out one way or the other. Left-back is a different matter. Dan Burn, who has been the first choice for most of the season, is simply too slow to not be a liability in a system which is vulnerable to quick counters, and he has been exposed this season.
Which is why it’s rather odd that Newcastle haven’t been heavily linked with many left-backs of late. Arsenal’s out-of-favour Oleksandr Zinchenko is a name which crops up but while a fine player in many regards, he too can struggle to deal with direct plays over the top. This could be where Lloyd Kelly comes in.
The Bournemouth defender is available on a free transfer this summer and a number of clubs are reported to be chasing his signature – and Newcastle are one of them, with good reason. Although far from the most technically accomplished defender Newcastle could sign, he covers a lot of Burn’s deficiencies and would help to balance the back line.
He’s respectably quick and reads the game well – he averages four clearances per game, which is a huge number, and that is also in a team who play with an aggressive high line. In other words, when the ball gets in behind Kelly, he knows how to deal with it. That could make a big difference.
He predominantly plays as a centre-half but has played on the left regularly, and it could well be there that he would see most of his action if Newcastle do win the race to sign him. He may not be a splashy signing or even cost a fee, but he could be a genuine difference maker, plugging a gap which needs to be filled.
Further forward, Newcastle have not had too much trouble scoring goals – only Manchester City and Arsenal scored more this season, and only Liverpool and City managed to generate a higher xG. But there has been one issue, and that’s on the right-hand side of the front three.
Miguel Almirón is a hugely popular figure among Newcastle fans but his production has dropped off. He managed just three goals and one assists in the league from his 33 appearances – back-up Jacob Murphy managed 10 goal contributions in total, by comparison. As Newcastle look to step up once again, the Paraguayan begins to look like the weak link in the chain.
Newcastle have been linked with a move for several attacking players who could play on the right, but none are as productive as Raphinha, the former Leeds United winger who scored six goals and picked up nine assists in 28 La Liga games this season, only 17 of which were starts. He continues to be hugely dangerous up front but looks likely to become a victim of Barcelona’s exacting standards and continual need for cash.
This is also a player who scored 17 goals in two Premier League seasons at Elland Road – in other words, he’s a proven goal threat who contributes at least as many assists as the players Newcastle already have up top. Having him in the side could make a world of difference and add the goals and chances needed to bridge the gap up to the very best sides.
Reports suggest that he would cost something up to €80m (£68.4m) but that’s likely the upper limit – and even at that price point, he does enough damage to be worth the punt. He is still only 27 years old and probably has several good years left in him and on paper, he would be a perfect fit for Newcastle’s playing style.
Newcastle aren’t so very far from being regular competitors for the top four, but they do need to fix a few more things before they can seriously challenge the very best sides in the land – and Raphinha and Kelly could go a long way towards sorting out the issues that they still have.
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