The Cardinals ousted Kliff Kingsbury after 2022 and replaced him with Eagles DC Jonathan Gannon as head coach.
Gannon brought Nick Rallis from Philly to be his defensive coordinator and tabbed Browns quarterbacks coach Drew Petzing as his offensive coordinator. Expectations were set low with Kyler Murray recovering from a torn ACL and expected to return midway through the season. The team understandably struggled en route to a 4-13 record including three wins plus five losses with Murray as the starter. Arizona’s staff is almost entirely unchanged heading into 2023.
The biggest question for Arizona was always going to be how Murray was used. He devolved into a check-down merchant in the final hours of the Kingsbury regime and his numbers took massive hits across the board. Things didn’t get much better in Murray’s half-season with Gannon and Petzing. His 7.5 aDOT ranked 34th in the league. It was fueled by a career-low rate of deep passing (9.7 percent) and a career-high rate of throws between zero and nine yards downfield (50.4 percent). The Cardinals also logged a pass rate seven percent below expected in Murray’s eight starts.
Arizona also ranked 18th in situation-neutral pace over the final nine weeks of the season. No matter how you slice it, the Cardinals were a hyper-conservative offense with Murray on the field.
Passing Game
QB: Kyler Murray, Desmond Ridder
WR: Marvin Harrison Jr., Zay Jones
WR: Michael Wilson, Chris Moore
WR: Greg Dortch, Zach Pascal
TE: Trey McBride, Tip Reiman
The first half of the 2023 season gave us very little in the way of meaningful data for the Cardinals. Josh Dobbs made eight starts and Clayton Tune pitched in for a ninth. Zach Ertz was also the starting tight end for nearly two months before Trey McBride took his place in the lineup. McBride proved to be the Cardinals’ best tight end and a fantasy darling the moment he took over. From Week 8 onward, McBride averaged 6.6 receptions for 65.5 yards per game. He also posted stellar marks in yards per route run (2.08) and targets per route run (.27). All four of those numbers would have ranked first or second among tight ends over the course of the entire season.
That’s where the excitement ended for Arizona’s receivers. Michael Wilson struggled to earn separation en route to an Open Score of 43 in ESPN’s player tracking metrics. That ranked 85th out of 109 qualified receivers. He caught just under half of his contested targets and averaged a modest 1.36 yards per route run. The Cardinals added Zay Jones in free agency after the Jaguars cut him. He averaged a dreadful 1.05 yards per route run in an injury-plagued final season with the Jags. Even if he doesn’t have much left in the tank, Jones will see enough snaps to prevent anything resembling a breakout for Michael Wilson. Greg Dortch stepped into the starting rotation in Week 11 and averaged 9.1 PPR points per game as a check-down option for Murray. He could hold that role into 2024, giving him some life in deep best ball drafts.
Marquise Brown was the team’s top receiver for most of the 2023 season. He didn’t show much in his second season with the Cardinals and left for a one-year deal with the Chiefs in free agency. The Cardinals replaced him with Marvin Harrison Jr. via the No. 4 overall pick. MHJ broke out in his second season at Ohio State with 1,263 yards and 14 touchdowns. The Buckeye’s offense took a step back in 2023, but Harrison Jr. registered a 44 percent Dominator Rating to top 1,200 yards and reach 14 touchdowns once again. Harrison didn’t do any of the drills at the NFL Combine because he didn’t need to. His resume speaks for itself and he measured at 6’3/209, giving him alpha receiver size. MHJ is in rarified air as a prospect, with many saying he is a better bet coming out of college than Ja’Marr Chase. Chase went for 1,455 yards and 13 scores in his electric rookie season. Best ball drafters are taking Harrison as the WR9, meaning they have already priced in a similar debut for the Buckeye.
For Harrison Jr. and McBride to reach their lofty ADPs, Murray needs to improve in his second season under Gannon. He averaged a measly 6.7 yards per attempt and ranked 20th in EPA per play. He has ranked as high as 12th in EPA per play and posted 7.9 yards per throw in 2021, so we know the ceiling is there. Murray’s usage on the ground gave us a small silver lining in 2023. He averaged 2.75 designed carries per game. That would have been good for third in the league over 17 games. It’s not hard to imagine Murray putting it all together and posting another top-five fantasy season. Still, it seems equally as likely that his passing doesn’t rebound, the play-calling is anemic, and the offense flops. The payoff in the former scenario is league-winning potential from multiple players. Floor be damned, the Cardinals are a fun team to draft this year.
Running Game
RB: James Conner, Trey Benson, Michael Carter, DeeJay Dallas
OL (L-R): Paris Johnson Jr., Evan Brown, Hjalte Froholdt, Will Hernandez, Jonah Williams
Entering 2023, James Conner had made a career out of soaking up touches with modest efficiency. Conner had never gone below 2.75 yards after contact per attempt in five seasons with more than 100 carries. He had also peaked at 2.87 in that metric. Then, at 28 years old, Conner gave his best season to date. Pro Football Focus graded him as their No. 5 runner. He ranked top-five in yards after contact and missed tackles forced per carry. Conner finished the year as the RB13 in full PPR points per game. A four-week stint on injured reserve because of a knee injury suppressed his season-long numbers to 208 carries for 1,040 yards and seven scores. Conner will be a smash at his RB27 positional ADP if he can reproduce similar numbers over the course of an entire season.
The Cardinals, however, aren’t putting all of their eggs in that basket. Conner has one year left on his contract and they added Florida State running back Trey Benson with the No. 66 overall pick. Benson was a committee back at FSU, logging 300 carries over two seasons. An elite breakaway runner, Benson ranked 68th in the country in rush attempts last year but sat at 28th in yardage on carries of 15+ yards. He confirmed his home run speed with a sub-4.4 40-yard dash at 6’/216.
Conner was an elite running back in 2023, but that’s not who he has been at any other point in his career. The Benson selection is a clear hedge against the aging veteran. Benson’s Week 1 role may not be fantasy viable, but his upside in the second half of the season makes him a great bet as a premium stash for fantasy rosters in need of a high-ceiling bullet.
Win Total
DraftKings Over/Under: 6.5
Pick: Over
The juice on the over is -150 at DraftKings and even worse at other books. That’s a fair price. Kyler Murray has shown a superstar-level ceiling in the past but hasn’t been that player in years. He has also been maligned by poor coaching, inconsistent receiver play, and his own health for some time. Given Murray’s high ceiling and low floor, I like taking some long-shots for Arizona. They are currently +300 to make the playoffs and Murray is +3000 to win Comeback Player of the Year.
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